A climate phenomenon now described as one of the most powerful in recent decades is developing in the Pacific Ocean. This refers to El Niño — a periodic warming of the ocean’s surface waters capable of affecting weather patterns in many regions of the world. The speed of its development has drawn heightened attention from specialists.
According to NOAA, the probability of El Niño forming in 2026 reaches 82%, and by winter 2026–2027 it climbs to 96%. The World Meteorological Organization estimates the probability of it persisting through November at roughly 90%. A number of experts consider that the 2026 event could become one of the strongest in the entire modern observational record.
One of the most noticeable manifestations of strong El Niño episodes is typically a rise in global temperature, which is why particular attention is paid to temperature anomalies during this period. For example, on June 23, 2026, Astana set a new record high for that date: the air warmed to +36.8°C, surpassing the 1941 record of +36.4°C, which had stood for 85 years.
However, the consequences are not limited to this and extend far beyond weather reports, since major climate events can affect the availability of resources on which people’s daily lives depend.
For Kazakhstan, water is one of the most sensitive areas. As noted in the KISI analytical report “Water Security in Kazakhstan: Current Challenges and Future Alternatives”, the future of the country’s water security is shaped by the interaction between climate variability and demand dynamics, constrained by infrastructure and governance limitations — as a result, water security becomes a function of the state’s and the economy’s ability to operate under uncertainty.
Note:
To support organizations in Kazakhstan in improving water-use efficiency, the Smart Water Zone project is being implemented, helping to assess water footprint, identify opportunities to reduce it, and adopt best practices in water resource management.
